Preventive Veterinary Medicine

Free-roaming dog populations pose challenges to public health and animal welfare, and their management and protection is legally mandated in many countries to control zoonotic diseases such as rabies, reduce bites, mitigate fear of aggressive dogs, and preserve animal welfare. Although international organisations recommend holistic dog population management with surgical sterilisation as a key component, stakeholders report a lack of evidence-based guidance on effective and cost-efficient strategies. To address this, we developed a deterministic model of a closed free-roaming dog (FRD) population, including dogs dependent on and independent of humans, parameterised using data from southern India. We evaluated a wide range of sterilisation strategies varying duration, interval, frequency, intensity, targeting different population subsets, and fixed or responsive approaches. Strategies were assessed based on their effects on independent FRD population size and implementation costs. Female sterilisation coverage (FSC) strongly determined population reduction and cost-effectiveness. Repeated, short sterilisation periods with appropriately timed intervals and high early intensity best balanced population reduction and cost-efficiency. Excluding dependent dogs (cared for by humans) severely constrained population reduction, while male sterilisation enhanced impact at little extra cost, assuming direct effects on pregnancy rates. Costs and population impacts can be visualised on an interactive web application (https://field.shinyapps.io/DogPopSimApp), allowing practitioners and policymakers to explore sterilisation strategy outcomes. Overall, cost-effective population reduction required sustained commitment and coverage-driven strategies that balance welfare, population reduction and the operational needs of dog-mediated rabies control.

ContextThe movement of vertebrate hosts across urbanized landscapes can play a key role in the transmission of direct-contact diseases. Understanding how wildlife hosts move in urban landscapes, and how transmission is affected by their landscape-constrained and disease-altered movements, is imperative for better predicting the spread of disease. ObjectiveWe assess how the movement of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) according to landcover type, and their infection status, affect the spread of mange (caused by Sarcoptes scabiei) in an urbanized landscape. MethodsWe developed a mange transmission model (MTM) using an agent-based model to compare two movement behaviours of foxes in Scarborough (Ontario, Canada): random and landcover-based. We further assessed the effects of movement on disease transmission by considering the foxs infection status and comparing a range of movement probability scenarios. We quantified the number of effective contact events and the effective reproduction number (Re) according to each scenario. ResultsWe found that both landcover-dependent movement and infection status influenced the spread of mange within fox populations. The number of effective contact events and effective reproduction number Re was greatest when landscape heterogeneity was included in the model and foxes moved through paths of least resistance to movement, and when susceptible and infected foxes had an equal probability of leaving a fragmented habitat patch. ConclusionsOur findings suggest that mange spread may be accelerated along movement corridors in fragmented, heterogenous landscapes. As urban areas expand and remnant habitat within these is further lost and animals are relegated to fewer movement pathways, disease transmission may increase.

Naturally occurring variation in the bovine mannose receptor C-type 1 gene (MRC1) may shape macrophage responses to Mycobacterium (M.) bovis, a key driver of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). We identified four coding region SNPs in MRC1 across Bos taurus (Holstein Friesian, Brown Swiss) and Bos indicus (Boran, Sahiwal) cattle breeds, including a non-synonymous variant, rs380943118 (c.2963G>A; Ser988Asn) in C-type lectin-like domain (CTLD) 6, most prevalent in Sahiwal cattle. Structural modelling suggested that the S988N substitution, which is spatially separated from the monosaccharide binding site of CTLD4, might indirectly affect glycan binding, perhaps through a conformational change in the receptor. Monocyte-derived macrophages upregulated MR expression during differentiation, with heterozygous (G/A) animals showing higher MR expression and increased uptake of GFP-M. bovis BCG, although differences were not statistically significant. Anti-CD206 blockade did not inhibit BCG internalization, either indicating that this specific antibody did not bind to a CTLD involved in ligand binding or that MR is not the sole entry receptor. These results highlight naturally occurring MRC1 polymorphisms that may influence MR structure and macrophage function, providing a foundation for future studies to assess their role in bTB susceptibility.

Objectives: Research on mental health in agriculture has increased in recent years; however, it remains largely focused on farmers themselves and is predominantly male-oriented. The mental health of farm wives and partners, many of whom play integral roles in farm operations, business management, and family life, remains difficult to characterise. This study therefore aims to explore the prevalence and causes of mental health challenges among farm wives and partners, and to investigate their use of, and barriers to, mental health support services. Methods: Quantitative data was collected using over 450 structured questionnaire responses that assessed mental health prevalence, contributing stressors and support service utilisation. Results: Findings indicate that there is a high prevalence of mental ill health amongst farm wives, seemingly due to industry stressors and support role overwhelm. Interpersonal relationships played a significant role in the types of mental distress experienced and highlighted the toll that farm life can take on farm wives' social and emotional connections. Despite a range of formal and informal support services being available, and effective when used, significant barriers to accessing these services were identified, including both practical difficulties and self-stigmatisation due to cultural beliefs. Conclusions: Farm wives and partners experience substantial mental health burdens linked to their diverse and often underrecognized roles within agricultural systems. In future, targeted interventions are needed to reduce stigma, improve service accessibility, and recognize women's contributions within farm enterprises. Further research and dedicated investment are also essential to better understand and help improve the mental health of this overlooked population within agricultural industries.

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at increased risk of exposure to vaccine-preventable diseases, including hepatitis B, tuberculosis (TB), and tetanus, due to their occupational environment. Despite the availability of safe and effective vaccines, vaccination coverage among HCWs remains suboptimal in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to determine the vaccination coverage for hepatitis B, tuberculosis, and tetanus among HCWs in district hospitals in Yaounde, Cameroon, and to identify factors associated with incomplete vaccination. Methods: A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted from January to June 2024 across all seven district hospitals in Yaounde. A total of 406 HCWs were enrolled using a structured, self-administered questionnaire. Incomplete vaccination status was defined as nit having received three doses for hepatitis B, at least two doses for TB, and at least three doses for tetanus. Data were analyzed using R Statistics version 4.3.3. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of incomplete vaccination, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05. Results: Most of participants were female (75.6%) and aged 30-44 years (65.5%). Full vaccination coverage was 36.2% for hepatitis B, 15.8% for tuberculosis, and 53.4% for tetanus. Unvaccinated proportions were 43.1% for hepatitis B, 0.5% for tuberculosis, and 17.2% for tetanus. Multivariate analysis revealed that HCWs aged 55-66 years were significantly less likely to be incompletely vaccinated against hepatitis B compared to those aged 19-29 years (aOR = 0.07; 95% CI: 0.01-0.39; p = 0.004). Nurses and laboratory technicians were more likely to be incompletely vaccinated than doctors (aOR = 7.06; 95% CI: 3.82-13.6; p < 0.001 and aOR = 3.78; 95% CI: 1.73-8.52; p = 0.001, respectively). Longer professional experience was protective against incomplete vaccination for all three vaccines (p < 0.05). The main barriers to vaccination included high cost, doubts about the need for vaccination, and concerns about side effects. Conclusions: Vaccination coverage for hepatitis B, tuberculosis, and tetanus among HCWs in Yaounde remains suboptimal, particularly for hepatitis B. Addressing financial barriers, improving access to vaccines, and implementing targeted educational interventions are essential to enhance vaccine uptake and protect both HCWs and their patients from preventable occupational infections.

Background: Dirofilaria repens is a zoonotic parasite expanding unnoticed across Europe due to climate change. We hypothesised that in this process, the Carpathian Basin has a facilitating effect. Methods: Using 426 georeferenced European cases, the probability of infection occurrence was determined in relation to climatic factors, surface water availability, regional social deprivation, and stray dog population density. To analyse the potential impacts of ecological and social factors (deprivation and stray dog population density), the MaxEnt algorithm, and spatial Empirical Bayes smoothing and Bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association (BiLISA) index calculation were employed, respectively. Results: MaxEnt analysis revealed that the mean warmest month temperature (22.8 - 25.1 oC), winter mean minimum temperature (> -2.1 oC), and summer precipitation (28.6 - 231 mm) have the strongest impact on the probability of the parasite's occurrence in Europe. Social factors have significance in the eastern Balkans and the Carpathian Basin, but not in Western Europe. The Carpathian Basin appears to be a hotspot, similar to Mediterranean coastal areas. Furthermore, the Danube Valley acts as an ecological corridor for subtropical vector-borne parasites. Conclusions: Our findings confirm that summer warmth is the primary ecological driver of the parasite's range expansion, which is facilitated by the Carpathian Basin due to climatic and socioeconomic conditions.

A parvovirus recently associated with an outbreak in Dutch pigs was found in Denmark in symptomatic pigs and in fox (Vulpes vulpes) feces and spleens. Pig viruses were more closely related to each other than to viruses found in the respective local wildlife, suggesting a link between the farm outbreaks.

Effective conservation depends on demographic metrics that reliably reflect species status, particularly population abundance. For elusive species occurring at low densities, however, such metrics remain difficult to obtain. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are the standardized approach for estimating density in marked populations, but their data requirements, especially the need for multiple spatial recaptures across individuals, often limit applicability in small or data-poor populations. This constraint has resulted in knowledge gaps for some of the most vulnerable species, undermining evidence-based conservation planning and management. Using camera-trap data and SCR-derived density estimates from data-rich populations, we evaluated alternative, less data-demanding metrics and tested the hypothesis: Space to Event (STE), Mean Local Abundance (MLA), and Relative Abundance Index (RAI) exhibit predictable relationships with SCR-derived density; if supported, these metrics can reliably estimate density in populations where SCR models cannot be implemented. We applied this framework to the European wildcat (Felis silvestris), an elusive small felid with highly fragmented populations across Europe, for which density estimates are largely lacking despite growing conservation concern. Across 21 study areas spanning most of the species' range, our results indicate that European wildcats generally occur at lower densities than previously reported. SCR-derived estimates (n=10) averaged 10.32 {+/-} 11.56 inds/100km2, while STE enabled density estimation in five additional data-poor areas (mean 5.52 {+/-} 5.33 inds/100km2). STE showed a strong linear relationship with SCR-derived density (R2=0.98), supporting its use as a viable alternative when SCR is infeasible, although it tended to underestimate compared to SCR, especially at higher densities. In contrast, MLA and RAI showed weaker and non-linear relationships with SCR-derived density (R2=0.65), indicating substantially lower explanatory power and suggesting their estimates are more strongly influenced by confounding processes. By explicitly calibrating alternative metrics across a wide density gradient throughout most of the species' distribution, this study provides a transferable methodological framework for estimating density in low-density wildlife populations and the first continent-wide, standardized density assessment of a carnivore species. From a management perspective, our findings identify populations that may be most vulnerable, particularly those with the lowest densities, and highlight the need to prioritize absolute abundance monitoring.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne disease that can cause severe illness and death in both humans and livestock. Since 2016, Uganda has experienced recurrent but localized RVF outbreaks concentrated in the countrys southwestern region. The ecological drivers of this emergence remain unclear, as outbreaks have occurred throughout the year and show little association with meteorological patterns. We evaluated whether crop cultivation, particularly banana cultivation, is associated with RVF outbreak occurrence after controlling for likely confounders. We conducted a longitudinal study of human-inhabited 5 x 5 km grid cells across southwestern Uganda from 2016-2024. Annual Sentinel-2 satellite imagery composites were used to classify land cover into banana, coffee, ground crops, and non-crop categories, and the proportion of each land type was calculated for every grid-cell year. Because land cover proportions are compositional, isometric log-ratio transformations were used to estimate the independent effects of each land type. Confounding was addressed through propensity weighting, and crop substitution effects were estimated using g-computation. Banana land cover was the only land type consistently associated with increased RVF outbreak likelihood. In grid-cell years with low baseline banana cover, a 10-percentage point substitution from other land classes into banana was associated with a 1.64-fold increase in the odds of an RVF outbreak (95% CI: 1.17-2.29). In a simplified banana-only model, each 10-percentage point increase in banana cover was associated with a 1.21-fold increase in outbreak odds (95% CI: 1.02-1.43). Holding banana cover constant, substitutions among coffee, ground crop, and non-crop land showed weak or null associations. These findings suggest that banana cultivation may be an important ecological feature influencing RVF transmission dynamics and outbreak risk in southwestern Uganda. Author SummaryRift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne disease that affects both humans and livestock and has caused repeated outbreaks in southwestern Uganda since 2016. While rainfall and flooding are often linked to RVF outbreaks elsewhere, Ugandas recent outbreaks have occurred across seasons and are not well explained by weather patterns alone. We investigated whether agricultural land use could help explain where outbreaks occur. Using satellite imagery from 2016-2024, we measured the amount of banana cultivation, coffee cultivation, ground crops, and non-crop land across southwestern Uganda and evaluated their association with RVF outbreak occurrence. We found that areas with greater banana cultivation were consistently more likely to experience RVF outbreaks, even after accounting for environmental and demographic factors. In contrast, coffee, ground crops, and non-crop land showed little evidence of an independent association with outbreak risk. These findings suggest that banana cultivation may create ecological conditions that favor RVF transmission. Rather than indicating that bananas themselves cause disease, the results point to banana-growing landscapes as potential environments where interactions among mosquitoes, livestock, and humans may increase transmission opportunities. Understanding these local ecological drivers could help improve surveillance, risk assessment, and prevention strategies for RVF in Uganda and other endemic regions.

Climate and land use change are reshaping the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. West Nile virus (WNV), the most widespread zoonotic arbovirus in the United States, illustrates the need to integrate climate, land cover, and social vulnerability across heterogenous landscapes when assessing spatial risk. We present a nationwide, county-level assessment of WNV risk, using complementary statistical and mechanistic models to (1) identify socio-ecological correlates of current WNV incidence, and (2) project vector species-specific, temperature-dependent transmission suitability under mid- and late-century climate change scenarios. We find that land cover gradients, temperature-driven transmission, and both occupational and residential exposure are associated with WNV incidence, particularly in mixed urban-agricultural landscapes. Future temperature and land cover projections suggest spatially variable shifts in environmental risk, driven by divergent physiological responses among Culex species vectors. Our results highlight temperature and land cover as consistent, mechanistically grounded correlates of WNV risk at the national scale, while underscoring the need for refined, species-specific analyses at local levels. These insights can inform more targeted surveillance, vector control, and climate adaptation strategies. We also identify key knowledge gaps, particularly around host and vector ecology, that must be addressed to improve public health response in the face of ongoing environmental change.

The emergence of the novel monkeypox virus (MPXV) clade Ib in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring countries in late 2023 highlighted the need for rapid, scalable surveillance approaches to support outbreak detection and response. As part of the ODIN-Mpox project, wastewater surveillance (WWS) systems were established as an emergency public health measure in three Sub-Saharan African countries (DRC, Tanzania, and Burkina Faso) to evaluate the feasibility of wastewater-based monitoring for mpox and strengthen local surveillance capacity. Between January 2025 and April 2026, 117 wastewater samples were collected from selected sites and analyzed for MPXV DNA using targeted qPCR assays. Clinical mpox data were obtained from national surveillance systems and WHO reports to assess epidemiological linkages between wastewater detections and reported infections. Six wastewater samples tested positive for MPXV DNA. During the study period, DRC experienced the highest disease burden, with weekly reported cases peaking at about 3,000 in January 2025, while Tanzania reported a peak of 20 weekly cases in March 2025. No confirmed clinical cases were reported in Burkina Faso. No clear relationship was observed between reported case numbers and qPCR Ct values in positive wastewater samples. Despite the low detection frequency, the project demonstrated the operational feasibility of implementing MPXV wastewater surveillance in resource-limited settings and established laboratory capacity for environmental monitoring of emerging infectious diseases. Given the early stage of WWS implementation in the region, the study identified opportunities for further system strengthening, including optimization of sample processing and reporting workflows, improved access to laboratory supplies, and enhanced integration of environmental and clinical surveillance data streams. These findings highlight the value of WWS as a complementary component of integrated public health surveillance systems and emphasize the need for continued investment in laboratory capacity, harmonized methodologies, governance frameworks, and knowledge exchange to enhance outbreak preparedness and response in low-resource settings.

Mass mortality events (MMEs) create sudden pulses of carrion that can alter how vertebrate scavengers use carcass resources, including the frequency, duration, and timing of species-carcass contacts. These changes could have implications for pathogen transmission at the scavenger-carcass interface. We aimed to develop and apply a reproducible analytical framework for using camera-trap data to quantify transmission-relevant vertebrate activity at carcass sites under differing carrion biomass scenarios. We studied experimental carcass plots (single carcass ~43 kg; 'mass mortality' plots [10 carcasses, >350 kg total]; 6 of each) in Australia's alpine ecosystem. The framework integrated descriptive summaries (bipartite network analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves) and marked temporal point-process models to characterise structural and temporal dimensions of species-carcass activity. Mass mortality plots had greater overall visitation duration, occurring as sustained activity (50% of visitation event volume by day 17), compared with intense then rapidly declining activity at single carcasses (50% by day 8). Mass mortality plots also had higher predicted daily arrival probability and contact hours across most species, indicating an extended window for pathogen transmission. This framework provides empirically derived contact parameters for MME-related disease spread models using camera-trap data to identify potential transmission pathways at the scavenger-carcass interface.

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides (Mmm), remains a major burden to cattle health and the agricultural industry. Mmm is an atypical bacterial pathogen that appears to lack classical virulence factors that cause direct tissue injury (i.e. toxins), and little is known about the mechanisms driving its pathogenicity. The host immune response is believed to be implicated in CBPP pathology, though the molecular mechanisms underlying lesion initiation, progression and chronicity are poorly defined. Classical pathology describes a continuum of lung lesions starting from early inflammation to more mature necrotic lesions and formation of fibrotic sequestra. However, the host transcriptional response driving this potentially immunopathological progression during Mmm infection has never been resolved in vivo. Here, we performed lesion-stage-resolved transcriptomic profiling of pathological lung tissue collected from experimentally infected animals and compared to healthy lung tissue collected from unchallenged controls. Differential gene expression and functional enrichment analyses were used to identify biological pathways relevant to Mmm infection and pathological lesion formation. Early infection was dominated by interferon-stimulated genes and cytokine-responsive pathways, creating a primarily antiviral-like response environment despite the bacterial etiology. Red hepatization showed strong induction of neutrophil chemoattractants, epithelial remodeling markers, and early matrix-remodeling enzymes. Consolidation, spanning red and grey stages, was enriched for innate immune activation, leukocyte adhesion, extracellular matrix organization, and persistent interferon signaling. Grey hepatization reflected late-stage consolidation with heightened neutrophil effector activity, oxidative and proteolytic injury, and macrophage and fibroblast-linked collagen processing. Necrosis/Sequestra lesions showed reduced inflammatory signaling, robust extracellular matrix organization, adhesion, and morphogenetic pathways consistent with encapsulation and sequestrum formation. Our data indicate that the dynamic continuum of CBPP lung pathology is initiated by interferon-primed myeloid recruitment and amplified by neutrophil-driven injury and macrophage- and fibroblast-mediated matrix remodeling. These data further substantiate the role of dysregulated immunity in the development of disease during Mmm infection.

Clade 2.3.4.4b H5NX influenza viruses have spread widely in birds since 2020. In addition to causing disease in birds, these viruses have infected a variety of mammals, including humans. Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 viruses are currently causing an outbreak among dairy cattle in the United States, and it is important to determine if other mammals have been exposed to H5NX viruses. Cats, specifically outdoor and feral cats, frequently predate wild birds. Recent studies have shown that cats living on dairy cattle farms can be infected with H5N1. Here, we completed serological studies to determine if owned and feral cats living in an urban environment in the United States have evidence of past H5N1 exposures. We used multianalyte bead-based assays to measure clade 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin (HA) antibody levels in serum samples collected in July 2023 to June 2025 from 417 feral and 228 owned cats from the greater Philadelphia area. We also measured antibody levels against a panel of HAs from other human and non-human influenza viruses, and the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We completed additional H5N1 and SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assays using samples that had detectable antibodies in the multianalyte bead-based assays. One cat (0.16%) was positive for H5 antibodies and twenty cats (3.1%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in both binding and neutralization assays. These data suggest that cats in the Philadelphia area have not been routinely exposed to clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 viruses but have been more commonly exposed to SARS-CoV-2.

Background Nipah virus (NiV) is a priority zoonotic pathogen causing high-fatality outbreaks. Early NiV outbreaks in Malaysia and Singapore had limited transmission beyond spillover events. However, since 2001, NiV outbreaks with person-to-person transmission have occurred in Bangladesh and India, driven by the NiV-Bangladesh genotype and NiV-India genotype. Our study aims to estimate the reproduction number, offspring dispersion, and serial interval governing NiV transmission in Bangladesh and India during 2001-2026. Methods We conducted a systematic review of NiV outbreak investigations in Bangladesh and India, searching PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and grey literature through 28 February 2026. Case-level offspring counts from 27 eligible sources (323 cases across 67 outbreaks) were used as input to a hierarchical Bayesian negative binomial offspring distribution model. The serial interval was estimated by parametric distribution fitting to 137 transmission pairs. Country-stratified and sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of estimates. Results Pooling across 67 outbreaks, we estimated a median reproduction number of 0.46 (95% CrI: 0.28-0.73), an offspring dispersion parameter of 0.07 (0.05-0.10), and a serial interval of 13.3 days (95% CI: 12.8-13.8). Country-stratified median reproduction numbers were 0.48 (0.23-0.97) for India and 0.35 (0.19-0.59) for Bangladesh, and dispersion parameters were 0.04 (0.02-0.07) and 0.11 (0.06-0.18), respectively, indicating marked overdispersion in both settings. Conclusion NiV transmission is self-limiting on average and highly overdispersed, suggesting that a disproportionate share of onward transmission arises from a small number of cases. This epidemiological profile supports targeted containment measures, including contact tracing and quarantine, for effective NiV outbreak control.

Bacterial conjugation is the primary mechanism by which antibiotic resistance genes spread in microbial populations, yet our understanding of this process has been largely based on experiments conducted under aerobic conditions. This creates a fundamental disconnect: environments that are considered hotspots for gene exchange (e.g., the gut, abscesses, chronic wounds, and wastewater systems) are predominantly anaerobic. In this study, we investigate whether oxygen availability influences the transfer rate of a set of common ESBL-IncI1- and qnrS1-IncF plasmids in commensal Escherichia coli strains from chickens. We found that oxygen availability significantly shapes conjugation dynamics in a recipient strain-specific manner, with anaerobic conditions promoting higher ESBL-IncI1- plasmid transfer rates to commensal E. coli recipients. Conjugation rates of the ESBL-IncI1- plasmids to a laboratory strain of E. coli were several orders of magnitude higher and independent of oxygen level, while two qnrS1-IncF plasmids showed higher anaerobic rates. Our study reveals critical "oxygen blind spots" in conventional conjugation assays and suggests that conventional aerobic conjugation assays underestimate plasmid transfer rates in natural environments such as the chicken caeca. These findings highlight the importance of aligning experimental conditions with the physiological and ecological environments in which gene exchange naturally occurs. Tailoring these variables is essential for generating results that accurately reflect, predict, and potentially intervene in the horizontal spread of antimicrobial resistance.

Background Brucellosis is a severe zoonotic disease with pronounced seasonality and regional heterogeneity in high-incidence areas of China. Reliable forecasting tools are needed to inform prevention strategies, but the optimal modeling approach across different regions remains unclear. Principal Findings We collected monthly brucellosis incidence and 17 environmental variables from 2014 to 2024 across five high-incidence provinces: Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, and Hebei. A three-step procedure--cross-correlation analysis, multicollinearity diagnostics, and stepwise regression--was used to select exogenous predictors. We then compared four time-series models: seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), SARIMA with exogenous variables (SARIMAX), long short-term memory (LSTM), and LSTM with exogenous variables (LSTMX). All five provinces showed a unimodal seasonal pattern with peaks between April and July, though environmental drivers and optimal lag periods varied substantially by region, ranging from 1 to 6 months. In forecasting performance, LSTM achieved the highest accuracy in Shanxi (R2=0.925), Hebei (R2=0.876), and Xinjiang (R2=0.829), outperforming SARIMA and SARIMAX. LSTMX performed best in Inner Mongolia (R2=0.759) and Heilongjiang (R2=0.772) but showed weaker performance than LSTM in Shanxi and Hebei. Overall, adding exogenous variables did not consistently improve predictions across provinces. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate that LSTM-based models offer clear advantages for brucellosis forecasting in most high-incidence provinces, but the value of incorporating environmental predictors is region-dependent. These results support the development of tailored early warning systems and precision prevention strategies for brucellosis in high-risk areas of China.

An outbreak of New World screwworm has recently been spreading across Mexico, after more than 30 years of absence. The sterile insect technique, which consists of the massive release of sterilized males, has proven to be one of the most efficient methods for controlling the screwworm pest. However, given the limited number of sterile males available, improving the release strategy is critical. We propose a mathematical model of population dynamics adapted to the biology of Cochliomyia hominivorax and derive a feedback control function to determine the number of sterile males to release. We further construct a Luenberger observer to estimate wild fly populations from infected animal counts--the variable monitored by Mexican sanitary authorities--enabling field implementation of the control function. We show that eradication is achievable within approximately 60-100 weeks and that eradication time is governed primarily by the intrinsic biology of the system rather than by infestation magnitude. We then extend the model to a spatially explicit framework and show that when sterile male releases are applied at the outbreak focus and within a 120 km radius, eradication of the pest is attainable.

High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has spread beyond birds to affect seals across the Southern Ocean and sub-Antarctic region, with southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) particularly devastated. The virus, likely introduced via spillover from infected migratory birds, has killed tens of thousands of adult seals and pups throughout most of their range, though Macquarie Island remains unaffected so far. We used twenty years of elephant seal movement data from the southern Indian and Pacific oceans to assess whether seal-to-seal transmission could spread HPAI H5N1 between breeding colonies, despite the vast distances separating them (Marion Island, Iles Crozet, Iles Kerguelen, and Macquarie Island). There was substantial overlap in seals' at-sea distributions during their winter post-moult trips, when seals travel for weeks at average speeds of 3.5 km/h. Two transmission pathways were examined: (1) terrestrial "stepping stone" routes, where infected seals could pass the virus between colonies during short intervals to remain infectious were feasible from Marion Island to Kerguelen but not from Kerguelen to Macquarie Island; and (2) at-sea encounters between seals, which occurred frequently enough to enable transmission. The findings suggest that once established at Macquarie Island, the virus could potentially spread further to New Zealand's sub-Antarctic islands and mainland New Zealand. While seal-to-seal transmission appears possible, we conclude this is unlikely. Nonetheless, understanding at-sea contact rates enhances knowledge of H5N1 epidemiology and demonstrates the value of combining long-term population monitoring with movement data to understand wildlife disease dynamics.

Background: Vaccine hesitancy and logistical barriers continue to limit influenza vaccination uptake among healthcare personnel. The STRENGTH initiative evaluated employee drivers of influenza vaccine acceptance in healthcare workgroups with lower vaccination compliance. Methods: This mixed-methods program evaluation used a custom Epic electronic medical record dashboard to identify workgroups with lower influenza vaccination rates, followed by focus groups, targeted worksite vaccination clinics, and an anonymous survey. Survey data from 73 respondents were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Mann-Whitney U tests, Kruskal-Wallis tests, chi-square or Fisher exact tests, and Spearman rank correlations. Results: Respondents had a mean age of 44.8 years (SD 11.3); 36 of 70 respondents reporting binary gender were male. Convenience of worksite vaccination received the highest importance ratings (mean 4.72/5), followed by protection from influenza (mean 4.38/5). Both were rated significantly above the neutral midpoint of 3 (Wilcoxon p<0.001). The strongest observed Spearman correlations were between peer pressure and leadership participation (rho=0.47) and between protection from influenza and willingness to receive a future combined influenza/COVID-19 vaccine (rho=0.42). Conclusions: Convenience and perceived protection were the most important vaccination drivers. Employer-sponsored workplace vaccination programs can reduce logistical barriers while providing opportunities for targeted education and trust-building. Keywords: influenza vaccination; healthcare workers; vaccine hesitancy; occupational health; workplace vaccination; employer-sponsored vaccination